Just Like Davante Adams in 2015, Packers Can’t Lose Faith in Christian Watson
Aaron Rodgers kept throwing the ball to Davante Adams in 2015 because he saw a special talent. It should be the same approach with Christian Watson in 2023.
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are having a disappointing season and their former second-round receiver is struggling through his second year. Perhaps it’s time to move on or, at the very least, take away some of his playing time and targets.
After the 2016 NFL Draft, the esteemed Milwaukee Journal Sentinel suggested that Davante Adams was among the receivers “battling for their lives” because of the likes of Ty Montgomery and fifth-round draft pick Trevor Davis. Adams, a second-round pick in 2014 who had a dismal 2015, might have to make his mark on special teams to stick around for a third season.
Another Journal Sentinel story said Adams’ career was at a “crossroads.” Another headline read the Packers “should probably cut” Adams.
This season is filled with hot takes regarding Christian Watson.
Is Watson, a second-round pick in 2022 who is having a dismal 2023, playing well enough? No, of course not. Even his father, Tazim Wajed, said as much in a conversation this week.
“Christian is not without blame,” Wajed, who as hard-hitting safety Tim Watson was drafted by the Packers in 1993. “Sunday was his first true drop, and he has to make those plays. Additionally, I want to see him be more physical and aggressive at the catch point and start bullying these smaller DBs.”
As a rookie, Watson during the team’s first nine games caught 10-of-14 passes for 88 yards. During the final eight games, he caught 31 passes for 556 yards and seven touchdowns. He had the monster game against Dallas with 107 yards and three touchdowns to start his prolific second half of the season, and was by far the Packers’ best player in the season-ending loss against Detroit with five catches for 104 yards.
That was supposed to be the launching point to stardom. Instead, through the team’s first nine games of this season (he missed the first three), he’s caught 14-of-33 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown. In all, 75 receivers have been targeted 30 times. With a catch rate of 42.4 percent, only Watson has caught less than half his chances. Five of those targets have been intercepted
Has Watson underperformed? Yes. But is it time to cut his playing time? To put him on the bench so Malik Heath or Samori Toure can get more opportunities? No, that would be stupid. Watson is still the big, fast receiver who dominated at times during the second half of last season. He didn’t shrink. He didn’t get slower. He didn’t forget how to play football.
“I think he just needs to go out there and play fast, play decisive and play confident, because he’s a guy that has all the ability,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “He’s a big guy that can run and we need him to show that every opportunity on tape. If guys are going to get up in your face and want to bump you, you’ve got to be in attack mode and you’ve got to come off the line of scrimmage with a great stance and start and try to work people’s edges and get on top of them that way.”
Watson needs to play better but so does the quarterback.
According to Sports Info Solutions, only 22 of the 33 passes thrown to Watson have been deemed “catchable.” That’s the lowest rate in the NFL – just ahead of his former teammate, Allen Lazard, who is trying to catch passes from the Jets’ Zach Wilson.
Part of that is because of Love, who is back to last in the NFL in completion percentage and generally hasn’t been accurate, and part of that is play design, with Watson’s 17.3 yards per target being the longest in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, Watson has caught only 2-of-10, according to PFF. Of 45 receivers with at least nine deep targets, that 20.0 percent success rate is tied for the fourth-lowest. A big part of that is coming up with just 1-of-6 in contested-catch situations.
Some of that is on Watson but more of that rests on Love, who repeatedly has underthrown his deep passes, regardless of the intended receiver. Why not let the receiver with the 6-foot-4 frame and 4.36 speed run under the ball rather than stop, adjust and battle against a cornerback who has inside position because he was beaten?
A perfect example was the Week 5 loss at Las Vegas. The game ended when Love’s deep shot to Watson was intercepted. Watson was open but Love threw it too late and too short. Could Watson have done more to prevent the interception? Perhaps. A better throw, however, would have won the game
Last week at Pittsburgh, the Packers’ best chance to win the game ended when Love’s pass to Watson was deflected by Patrick Peterson and intercepted. Could Watson have sold the double-move better? Sure. However, that wasn’t the right read and, again, the ball was underthrown.
“I think if he throws a perfect ball, there’s an opportunity there,” LaFleur said. “We’ve got to make sure that when we’re running a double move, you always want to run the first move first, and put your eyes back to the quarterback to maybe get a defender to bite. But you’ve got to give it up to Patrick Peterson, he made a hell of a play. But do I think it was necessary [to throw that pass]? Maybe, maybe not. He was decisive and we’ve got to live with it.
“But I would say typically when they are playing a shell defense, usually that’s not where it goes.”
During the second half of last season, Watson and Aaron Rodgers built chemistry and trust, which allowed Watson to take off. The chemistry between Watson and Love is off. Here are the “catchable” percentages from SIS: the aforementioned 63.6 percent to Watson, 87.9 percent to tight end Luke Musgrave, 78.6 percent to receiver Romeo Doubs, 77.3 percent to Dontayvion Wicks and 75.7 percent to receiver Jayden Reed.
With a 38 Wonderlic score and his abundant rookie-year experience, Watson knows where he’s supposed to be. Especially for a man of his size, there’s nothing wrong with his route-running ability.
On the other hand, Love, not surprisingly, is thinking his way through his first-year experiences. In the NFL, especially at quarterback, there’s no time to think. Just look at Adams in Las Vegas. One of the great receivers of all-time is 15th in yards and 33rd in touchdowns because he’s incapable of throwing the ball to himself.
When Watson does get those opportunities, he’s got to make the most of them. Last year, his 75.0 percent success rate in contested-catch situations tied for No. 1 in the league, according to PFF. This year, among all receivers with eight contested-catch opportunities, his 16.7 percent catch rate is third-from-last.
“He’s strong enough to do it, as we see it in his blocking,” Wajed said. “As for the narrative on route running, I don’t see the big issue. He’s open quite a bit. I’m not so sure where he is in the progression, though, as they hadn’t this season done what they did at the beginning of Sunday’s game with actually making him the first read.”
On the opening series at Pittsburgh, Watson was the target on Love’s first two passes. They resulted in gains of 9 and 14 yards, the latter coming against air-tight coverage on third-and-3. Early in the second quarter, Watson dropped an easy one on third-and-8, which may or may not have moved the chains.
During the second half, he got just one opportunity before the deflected interception.
Not only shouldn’t the Packers give up on Watson, they shouldn’t cut back on his snaps or opportunities. Doubs, Reed and Wicks have all shown they can be weapons and building blocks for this retooled offense. But it’s Watson, with his prodigious physical tools, who is the player who can change any game on any play.
For the good of the offense – not just for this season but future seasons – Love and Watson have got to figure things out. No different than in 2015, when Rodgers kept throwing the ball to Adams because of his belief that the struggling receiver could be something truly special.
“The mystery is part of the story,” Wajed said. “No NFL player is drafted on who or what they are. It’s a business of projecting what they can be. Christian has the talent and tools to be special. Whether or not he becomes so remains to be seen. But it’s too early in the process for all the vitriol
