Examining John Tavares’ Potential Extension with the Maple Leafs.

According to recent rumors from Chris Johnston of TSN, John Tavares appears to be interested in playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs whenever his contract ends the next season. As long as the price is correct, it makes sense for all sides to close a deal.

His signing in 2018 of a seven-year, $77 million contract marked a turning point for a franchise that had trouble luring elite players in free agency. The correct term and cap hit on a contract for Tavares might alter how supporters remember his time with the Maple Leafs, even though the Stanley Cup dreams that accompanied this signing haven’t materialized.
There’s no doubting that Tavares will continue to be a leader in the Maple Leafs locker room, even in light of the captaincy dispute with Auston Matthews earlier this week. But as time goes on, the 33-year-old’s position on the ice will shift.

Despite his remarkable consistency as an offensive player over his six seasons with the Maple Leafs (419 points in 440 games), it seems unlikely that he will continue to produce close to a point per game until his mid-thirties.

Now, 65 points in 80 games wouldn’t be considered great evidence of any sort of impending fall-off for most players of his age, but his 0.81 points-per-game average in 2023-24 was the lowest he’s recorded in his 15-year NHL career. This makes it difficult to evaluate the trajectory of Tavares’ offensive output as he enters the final season of his deal, and how that will affect what the Maple Leafs will be willing to pay him.

As for the framework of a possible extension, it would be difficult for the Leafs to justify offering anything longer than a three to four-year deal. Much like their recent Chris Tanev signing, there’s still the possibility of a few extra years being added with the acknowledgement that he won’t be the same player towards the end, but that will rely on the cap hit being at the right number.

There are a few comparable players to look at when measuring what Tavares could be making on his next contract. Former Maple Leaf Ryan O’Reilly signed a four-year, $4.5-million deal with the Nashville Predators last summer, which will take him to free agency at 36. O’Reilly’s situation is different because he opted to test free agency, but considering he put up more points than Tavares last season, that could be the standard the Maple Leafs set when negotiations begin.

Jonathan Marchessault, who represents Tavares through Pat Brisson, is another player who was unable to reach an agreement with his organization. Following a career-high 42 goals and a Conn Smythe Trophy victory with the Vegas Golden Knights the previous season, Marchessault, then 33, became a free agent. He ultimately agreed to a five-year contract at a budgetary cost of $5.5 million with the Nashville Predators. Marchessault’s resume is comparatively stronger than Tavares’, which adds credence to the theory that he may be eligible for a $4–$5 million salary.