The timing of the Atlanta Braves’ collapse is off.

Since 2018, the Atlanta Braves have essentially controlled the National League East.

No matter how many free agents their rivals sign or how much team turnover they’ve experienced, the Braves have managed to win their division every season, seemingly at random. In 2023, they were the best club in baseball, winning 104 games and easily taking the lead in runs scored (947) in Major League Baseball.

During the 2023 regular season, Atlanta had an easy time of things. But things haven’t been the same this year. Additionally, the Braves run the risk of not only losing their East title but also missing the playoffs completely as the regular season draws to a close.

Atlanta Braves: Fighting Through Injuries and Poor Play Into Late 2024
The Braves suffered their fifth straight defeat on Thursday, falling to the Milwaukee Brewers 16–7. They were defeated 10-0 on Tuesday and 8-5 on Wednesday. They even managed to split a four-game series against the Miami Marlins, who were a mediocre team.

With 48 games left, the Braves are now eight games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in first place following their loss on Thursday. More significantly, it put Atlanta and the New York Mets in a tie for the third wild card slot. Furthermore, if the season ended tonight with the Mets leading 7-1, the Braves might not be in the postseason picture.

They led by a sizable margin during the All-Star break, guaranteeing them the top wild card spot and a four-game lead over New York. That has swiftly vanished.

And they are now in the mid-60s for a club that began the season with a 99% chance of making the postseason.
What then has transpired?

Indeed, the Braves have suffered their fair share of injuries. Both Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. are gone for the season. Max Fried has also had injuries, Reynaldo Lopez is on the injured list, Ozzie Albies has a fractured wrist, and Michael Harris III has lost time due to injury.

Orlando Arcia had been a league average hitter in 2023, but has cost the team 13 runs on offense by hitting .227 with a .273 on base percentage. Even Austin Riley, after back-to-back 5+ WAR seasons is on pace to finish in the mid-3’s.

The pitching, carried by the strong performance of Chris Sale, has remained generally well above average. But a year after scoring 947 runs, Atlanta’s on pace to score just 680 this year. It’s a substantial decline, and it could cost the Braves dearly.

While other teams were aggressive at the deadline, Atlanta wasn’t, adding another underperforming hitter in Jorge Soler. It might cost them what felt like a birthright: an appearance in October baseball