The most anticipated matchup of this weekend’s NFL divisional round is the latest in the rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
The Bills will be the home team for the first time since 2020, and Patrick Mahomes will be playing in an away playoff environment for the first time in his career.
Two years ago, the last time we saw these teams meet in the postseason, it was one of the greatest games in NFL history, with Kansas City winning 42-36 in a classic overtime game.
Outside of 1,000 yards of offense and a quarterbacking masterclass from Mahomes and Josh Allen, the quality of play was surprisingly clean, with no turnovers and only four penalties allowed.
This Sunday’s showdown features a different dynamic than previous playoff matchups.
The 2023 edition of Kansas City and Buffalo was anything but a rich machine.
The same 11-6 record in district championships was accompanied by a series of problems throughout the season, most of which were self-inflicted.
4,444 Turnovers The Chiefs and Bills are the only teams remaining in the playoffs that rank in the top 10 in turnovers and percentage of offenses that result in turnovers.
What’s the big difference?
Both teams turned the ball over 28 times, but the Chiefs’ turnover differential was -11 compared to Buffalo’s +2.
Kansas City posted a positive turnover differential only twice all season.
Patrick Mahomes himself has as many turnovers (17) as the Chiefs’ stellar defense.
Kansas City is used to being its own worst enemy.
Last season, the Chiefs became the eighth team to win the Super Bowl despite having a negative turnover margin (-3) during the regular season.
We have to look back at the 1983 Raiders.
This is the last time the eventual Super Bowl champions had a turnover margin of less than -10.
They are the only divisional round team whose expected net added points (EPA) from turnovers is still negative.
The Bills are one of the NFL’s best teams in net EPA after turnovers, even though Josh Allen ranks first in the league in turnovers (22) and second in interceptions thrown (18).
You may have noticed something.
As mentioned earlier, the Bills defense is great at forcing turnovers, but if you look at the offensive stats, not all turnovers are given equal weight.
Allen was prone to making rash decisions and sloppy mistakes, but his interceptions were not much higher than his teammates.
That’s not to say Buffalo hasn’t lost or nearly lost games due to sloppiness.
Of the five games in which the turnover differential was -2 or less, the Bills had a 2-3 record in all of those games against non-playoff opponents.
They are currently on a six-game winning streak, with a 24-22 victory over Easton Stick’s Los Angeles Chargers after committing three turnovers, all of which resulted in Charger points.
Chiefs lead the NFL in drops and drop rate Kadarius Toney had two notable drops that turned into interceptions, but Travis Kelce (7) had the most drops among Chiefs players.
book) and rookie Lachie Rice (eight) (via Pro Football Reference).
Buffalo earned the seventh-most penalties during the regular season.
In their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills were denied 80 yards 11 times, including consecutive false starts from field goal range to a punt.
However, it is not necessarily the quantity that is important.
A drop against Denver, along with a pass interference penalty, brought the Broncos within range of a winning field goal, and the infamous 12-man on the field blocked Will Lutz’s miss and didn’t miss on a retry attempt.
Related Denver Broncos shock Buffalo Bills with interesting ending to NFL season Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 96 penalties, which is about league average.
Imagine how much better these numbers would have been if Ja’Wuan Taylor, the most penalized player in the NFL and the most penalized player over the last eight years, wasn’t in the starting lineup.
Last week against the Miami Dolphins, Taylor was tackled from behind for an illegal block that negated a touchdown by Laci Rice.
Bills players are not immune to dropsy either.
He ranks seventh in total drops (30) and quietly ninth in drop percentage (5.
2%).
Against the Denver Broncos, the Bills had four drops, one of which ended in an interception.
