This weekend, who will win and go on to the conference finals?Here are my NFL divisional round predictions for the degenerates who enjoy gambling. Note that I do not cover the spread; rather, my prediction for the winner of the game is indicated by the team logos. I’ll list a few teams that I like depending on the spread at the conclusion of my picks.
Ravens vs Texas (-9.5): Although the Ravens are overwhelming favorites, players like Lamar Jackson, who is probably the league MVP, don’t exactly have the best playoff record:
With Jackson starting at quarterback, the Ravens are scoring 13 points a night on average in their four playoff games.
For good reason, a lot of people think the Ravens are the best NFL team going into the postseason. They had the largest point differential in the NFL, at +203, and won nine games by double digits. They were also the top team in DVOA, ranking fourth in offense, first in defense, and third in special teams. These guys are bullies who have had a number of very spectacular victories this season, most notably their road-humbling victory over the 49ers in Week 16.
It is undoubtedly dangerous to wager against Mahomes and Andy Reid throughout the postseason. The Bills, not the Ravens, are the best team in football right now, in my opinion, having stormed back from a 6-6 start to finish 11-6 and earn the #2 pick in the process. However, this Chiefs club has looked mortal all season long.
It feels like their year, that’s all.
Chiefs vs. Bills (-2.5): Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes played outstanding football in their most recent postseason meeting, which resulted in one of the most exciting football games ever. If you have seven minutes, this is definitely worth revisiting.
Should you be considering selecting the Bills in this game, you may want to reconsider after seeing this Sheil Kapadia statistic:
One of the worst football wagers in history has been to back Mahomes as an underdog. In his career, the Chiefs have been the underdog ten times. In those games, they have an 8-1-1 record against the spread. When did he not cover at all? 2022: A defeat against the Bills in Week 6.
There may be another game in which Goff tosses the ball in the air more than forty times because the Lions had the No. 5 rushing offense in 2023 and I assume Bowles will try to take it away. The Lions will undoubtedly gain a ton of yardage if he does. Whether the Bucs defense can push Goff into costly errors is the question.
Compared to the Eagles, Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson should have a stronger game plan for Bowles’ blitzes. (Well, my cat Butters should have a better game plan than the Eagles did against the Bucs, but whatever.)
