Week 16 NFL picks suggest Rams top Saints on Thursday to boost playoff bid, Ravens or 49ers on Christmas.
NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, and Dan Parr predict every game of the 2023 NFL season using football analysis and excessive punctuation, with Week 16 picks available.
Brooke is considering the Rams as the postseason is nearing. Los Angeles has been a hot team in recent months, winning four out of its last five games due to a balanced offense and tightened defense. The Rams will have Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams together for the seventh time this season, averaging 28.7 points and 6.1 yards per play in six games. This team is different from the Panthers and Giants they defeated in the past two weeks. New Orleans has been inconsistent, making it difficult to trust them.
Cincinnati is set to face Pittsburgh in a high-stakes match on Saturday, aiming to punish its fourth consecutive playoff contender and strengthen its AFC wild-card spot. The Bengals, led by Jake Browning, have averaged 32 points per game during their three-game run, just nine points shy of the Steelers’ current slide. Recent letdowns against New England and Arizona have jeopardized Pittsburgh’s playoff chances and Mike Tomlin’s 16-game streak without a losing record. Tomlin will need to coach his squad to save the Steelers’ season and return to 17 straight. The Bengals’ offense is more confident than Pittsburgh’s ability to keep pace, even with Ja’Marr Chase ruled out. Browning’s performance could potentially end a rival’s season and bolster the Bengals’ playoff chances.
Ali is selecting the Bills as their first test against a dangerous Buffalo team, which has just defeated two of the league’s best teams. The team is without their franchise quarterback, No. 1 WR, and second-best defensive player. Giff Smith’s head-coaching debut is likely to be memorable for the wrong reasons. The Bills need this win to keep pace in both the wild-card and AFC East races. They leave no doubt in this one.
Tom is considering the Colts due to their recent impressive performances, including Gardner Minshew’s 13-0 win and Desmond Ridder’s Falcons’ loss to the Panthers. Taylor Heinicke’s return as QB for Atlanta doesn’t move much, but the author is comfortable with Indy’s swagger, as exemplified by the Colts’ 5-2 record away from their home stadium. The author has written versions of this sentiment multiple times this season.
Ali is considering the Packers over the Panthers due to the Panthers’ defense’s struggles and the pressure they can’t consistently withstand. The Panthers might catch the Packers at the perfect time, coming off two losses and a poor defensive performance at Lambeau. However, Carolina’s offense, which has been held to 18 points or fewer in eight straight games, is unlikely to capitalize on the opportunity. The Packers maintain their playoff hopes for at least another week.
Gennaro is considering the Browns as a potential opponent due to their recent win over the Titans. Houston, despite being injured, has been a dominant team under DeMeco Ryans, securing a spot in the playoff race. Cleveland, on the other hand, is currently in the postseason, and the Browns defense is not a good match without their quarterback. With C.J. Stroud still in concussion protocol, Gennaro may fade the home team.
Tom is considering the Lions due to Jared Goff’s performance against Brian Flores-led defenses and the Lions’ recent 15-point loss at Chicago in Week 14. While not enough to pick Minnesota, Detroit will be tested more than in Week 15’s win against Denver, as they will be tested more in this game. The Lions’ disappearing act in Week 14 is also a concern.
Tom is considering the Jets due to their strong defense, which has allowed 16.2 points and 242.2 yards per game against lower-tier offenses. The Commanders offense, which has only reached 20 points once in its past four games, is unlikely to significantly impact the game, regardless of the starting quarterback.
Brooke is considering the Seahawks’ starting lineup, with potential return of Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill replacing injured Titans rookie Will Levis. The focus is on rushing attacks, as Tennessee has the fewest ground yards per game (104) since 2015, and Seattle has a 6-0 record when hitting 100 yards rushing. Both defenses struggle to stop the run, with “King Henry” and Kenneth Walker III playing in favor. Walker’s best performance of the year is expected to help keep Seattle’s postseason aspirations alive.
Brooke is taking the Buccaneers due to the importance of the game, as both teams are atop their respective divisions. Trevor Lawrence, who is in concussion protocol, needs to improve his performance since his ankle injury in Week 13. If Lawrence can’t play, C.J. Beathard will take on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Mayfield has seven total TDs and one giveaway in the last two weeks. Despite Tampa’s average of just over 16 points per game at home in 2023, the Bucs are currently playing their best football of the season, which the Jags wish they were in right now.
Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is a topic of discussion, with the team approaching a crucial position. However, the focus should be on a rising star, Montez Sweat, who has already committed to the team. Sweat, who signed a $98 million extension, has led two teams in sacks and has transformed Matt Eberflus’ defense. Prior to Sweat’s arrival, Chicago was 23rd in total defense and 28th in scoring defense. Since the trade, Chicago ranks fifth and seventh in those categories. The debate surrounding Fields and Sweat’s future is causing excitement among fans. Good luck to Sweat, Kyler.
Gennaro is considering the Dolphins over the Cowboys due to their record and perceived fraudulence. The biggest matchup advantage is Miami’s run game vs. Dallas’ run defense. The Cowboys recently gave up 266 rushing yards to the Bills, who are not known for their ground attack. The veteran run-stuffer, Johnathan Hankins, is missing due to a high ankle sprain. Mike McCarthy’s hulking nose tackle is “hard pressed to go” again this week, which is a major problem against Mike McDaniel’s creative ground scheme.
Ali is considering the Broncos due to their recent win over the Saints, who forced three turnovers and ran the ball 36 times at 4.0 yards per tote. New Orleans won, finishing the season at 9-8, second in its division and just outside the playoff picture. The revised paragraph will likely hold up until Jan. 8.
Gennaro is considering the Chiefs as a potential solution to their struggling offense. Kansas City has a 10-1 record against Kansas City since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, averaging 35.5 points per game. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in 11 divisional bouts, an unprecedented streak in league history. However, this is the only time the 2023 Chiefs have reached 28 points in a game since Week 7. The defending Super Bowl champions have gone 3-4 with an average of just 20.1 points per game. Mahomes appears frustrated with his sax receiving corps, and the Chiefs’ defense, led by Antonio Pierce, allows them to maintain their lead.\
Tom DeVito is considering joining the Eagles due to potential to rediscover his skills against the NFL’s 28th-ranked passing defense and the Giants’ ability to generate key turnovers. New York still needs perfect conditions to win, while Philly has a talent advantage to ensure error, potentially ending their three-game losing streak, despite recent sloppiness.
Brooke is taking the 49ers in the upcoming Super Bowl matchup, which features three MVP candidates and top-five offenses. The defenses could significantly influence the outcome, with Baltimore leading in scoring defense and sacks, while San Francisco is second in scoring defense and tops in takeaways. The main difference between the two teams is the offensive weapons outside of the quarterback, particularly with Baltimore losing Keaton Mitchell. The Niners have an advantage in this matchup.
