Liverpool had become famous for a certain ‘Moneyball’ transfer trick, but Southampton is providing the latest evidence of diminishing returns on the strategy.
When FSG arrived at Liverpool, the word on everyone’s lips was ‘Moneyball’. That interest was supercharged shortly afterwards by the 2011 film of the same name, with fans fascinated to see how John Henry’s data-driven vision would translate over to the football transfer market.
Henry is briefly depicted in the film, trying to lure data visionary Billy Beane from the Oakland A’s to join the Boston Red Sox. That proved unsuccessful, but the FSG chief would go on to implement Moneyball strategies anyway, ultimately leading to the MLB World Series crown.
While the word isn’t exactly a term of art, it broadly refers to finding value by tapping into some sort of market inefficiency. In baseball, that meant trusting the underlying numbers yet to break into mainstream scouting practices. And FSG sought to do much the same thing at Liverpool, rapidly setting up a data science unit.
Once again, it has to be said that Moneyball worked, even if it took time. Infamously, Roberto Firmino was a ‘transfer committee’ signing during the Brendan Rodgers era, but the numbers came good, and he became a Liverpool legend under Jürgen Klopp.
Perhaps peak ‘Moneyball’ was Philippe Coutinho. FSG recognized that he was being under-utilized at Inter Milan, snapped him up for a bargain transfer fee, and ultimately sold him to Barcelona for $187m (£146m/€170m). That then funded a spending spree that would deliver every possible trophy.
But Moneyball constantly has to evolve. Market inefficiencies do not stay the same. For instance, the major edge that Liverpool (and the Red Sox) got through using data has now shrunk down to a wafer-thin margin, with more or less every club embracing the numbers now.
Another Liverpool trick that could fall into the Moneyball category down the years is buying from newly-relegated clubs. The myth is that these players are not worth a second glance, having not been good enough to stay in the top flight. But the reality is that there are routinely one or two gems to pick up, something FSG did multiple times at impressively low prices.
Kicking off the trend was Georginio Wijnaldum in 2016. At $32m (£25m/€29m), he was seen as a major purchase, but Liverpool undoubtedly secured value for the deal. The Dutchman became the heartbeat of Klopp’s midfield for years to come.
